I predict the iOS 7 effect will be worse. Within a week of running full time, those apps which haven’t been modernised to look like an iOS 7 app will look very old. They too will become insta-deletes.
I agree, to a point. But there are a few exceptions (or at least modifiers):
Apps which don’t use any of the default UI at all will sink or swim on their own merits just the same as they did before iOS 7 — if they have UI elements that are unique enough that they transcend the iOS 6 / iOS 7 change. Example: Tweetbot, or VSCOcam, which won’t have to change quite as fast, if at all. It’ll take that much more work when they do redesign these apps though, as a result of their custom UI.
Utility apps which do one or two niche things well will have sticking power, because they don’t need to look pretty. Even these will get left in the dust gradually by any competitors who replicate their features with a nicer UI. But you won’t go deleting them immediately. Example: your bank app.
Apps which have worked hard on being unique in their field, or have cultivated their customers well, will have a lot of leeway in this area. I’d give Omnifocus a very long time to update their look, for example. Same goes for Drafts, which could look like something a cow did and still stay in my dock.
The vast majority of apps don’t fall into the above categories, and the vast majority of customers might buy based more on looks than an honest appraisal of features. So there will be insta-delete app-genocide for all apps that aren’t modernized — but that’s not a hard and fast rule.
Published on July 16th, 2013